As has been noted in various news articles (e.g. this one posted by Tom Alciere), the IRS is bragging about FinCEN receiving nearly 1.2 million FBARs last year:
“Taxpayers here and abroad need to take their offshore tax and filing obligations seriously,” IRS Commissioner John Koskinen said. “Improving offshore compliance has been a top priority of the IRS for several years, and we are seeing very positive results.” … In 2015, FinCen received a record high 1,163,229 FBARs, up more than 8 percent from the prior year. In fact, FBAR filings have grown on average by 17 percent per year during the last five years, according to FinCen data.
The growth just before that five year window was even more impressive: in 2011, the number of FBAR filers jumped to 618,134, according to an article by Brian Knowlton article in the New York Times, up by 124% from 276,386 in 2009, an annualised growth rate of nearly 50%. (For comparison, during the five period from 2008–2012, the IRS added 100,000 new Foreign Earned Income Exclusion users — with average incomes of about US$30k, meaning they don’t owe any U.S. tax unless Koskinen figures out some clever new way to extract money from them by imposing obscene fines on them for committing ordinary personal finance or inventing new forms of “income” out of thin air.)
Massive growth is exactly what Ms. Lucy Stensland Laederich of FAWCO told FinCEN to expect nearly six years ago, in response to FinCEN’s laughably low estimates in their Notice of Proposed Rulemaking in February 2010 (75 FR 8844) of 400,000 FBAR filers:
First, however, you note in VI. that the estimated number of affected filing individuals and entities is 400,000. In view of State Department estimates of over 5 million private sector Americans abroad and the large number of Americans and other U.S. persons residing within the United States and maintaining bank accounts abroad, I suspect that your number is vastly underestimated.
Oddly enough, as recently as 2008, FinCEN estimated that they should be getting 13 million FBARs. But three years later, James H. Freis, Jr. of FinCEN responded to FAWCO by covering his ears, ignoring the massive growth in filer numbers right in front of his eyes, and pretending that the 400,000 forms he actually received meant that his agency was getting 100% compliance already (76 FR 10244):
FinCEN received one comment on the estimated number of filers. The commenter believed that the number of filers should be higher. The commenter stated that estimates of Americans living abroad may be as high as 5 million, and that approximately 2 million of those Americans might be affected by the FBAR rules. The commenter did not provide a verifiable source or methodology for arriving at those estimates. As stated above, the rule contained in this document addresses the FBAR rules that have been in existence since 1972. FinCEN’s estimate of the number of affected filing individuals and entities (400,000) is based on the number of FBARs annually filed in recent previous years.
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