As goes the dependence on the US dollar, so goes the effectiveness of US sanctions. But, in this context consider: "The Biggest Migration Since the Barbarian Invasions of Rome" https://t.co/w2m34LV0iI via @intlmandotcom
— U.S. Citizen Abroad (@USCitizenAbroad) August 10, 2019
In the 1990s, University of Toronto economist David Foot, developed the theory that demographics isn’t everything. It’s the only thing. In other words, most of what goes on the economies can be explained by demographics. Could you imagine the possibility of Lagos Nigeria having a population of 90 (yes you read correctly) million people?
The article referenced in the above tweet (whether you believe it or not) is rational and fascinating. It describes the interaction between population growth in Africa, the large population in China, the need that the world has to reduce it’s dependence on the U.S. dollar and the implications for U.S. power.
This is part of a continuing theme of posts recognizing the relationship between the dominance of the dollar and U.S. power. The article includes:
International Man: If China comes to dominate Africa and its resources, what does that mean for its rivalry with the US?
Doug Casey: Well, the US government is basically bankrupt at this point. The only thing that the US exports in quantity is US dollars. And sometime soon, the Chinese, the Russians, the Malaysians, the Iranians, and the Indians, among others, won’t need or want US dollars. They don’t want to accept them now, because it’s an asset of their adversary or even their enemy. They’re unhappy about having to settle accounts in dollars that all have to clear through New York.
So, they’re going to come up with their own alternative. And I suspect they’re going to use gold. Why? Because they don’t trust each other’s paper currencies. And why should they?
How’s the United States going to react to that?
It’s going to be left out in the cold. No one needs or wants their dollars—they want and need real goods, not the paper obligations of a hostile, unpredictable, bankrupt government. Also, the US isn’t in a position to export people, except for some unwelcome soldiers. The Chinese are in an excellent position to export a couple hundred million spare people. The bottom line is that the Chinese are going to take over Africa financially, and they’re going to take it over demographically as well.
Reads a bit like science fiction. And although lot of what he says is true, a lot of the speculation goes overboard, in my humble opinion. Gold for example is very volatile. In 2000 it was worth something like 235 per ounce, and then it went up to 1400 today. it can just as easily go back to 235. Not such a safe haven after all, except in times of turmoil and instability of everything else, for a while. And I have also heard that China is investing heavily in Africa- I believe it is to have more direct access to Africa`s natural resources for the production of their many products. I wonder how they manage to negotiate all the corruption there. with all the corruption, Africa is its own worst enemy. But nobody ever speculates on that ever improving. Will Africa ever get its act together? NO! I also don’t believe that ((( millions ))) of Africans will try to get into Europe- lots of exaggeration here. Right now it is a few thousand on a boat. By far more middle eastern people have entered Europe. But what is absolutely true is that the world is looking for an alternative to the dollar- especially Iran, Russia, and maybe China, although China wants their debt repaid without taking a loss. I am afraid Trump is accelerating this process with all of his posturing and his sanctions and tariffs , which China has so elegantly avoided by currency manipulation ( lowering the value of its own currency to enhance exports in spite of tariffs ). And although America and the dollar losing its position in the world might be good for expats facing FATCA ( doesn’t FATCA feel like a form of sanctions too?) I am afraid that if Trump actually crashes the world order and the dollar, we will all suffer direly. But there is definitely a new world order in the making. England was once a global empire too. (How amazing for such a small country. How did they do that exactly?) I wonder if America will crash and burn or just continue as England did when it had to shrink. Just pondering and rambling a bit here. Certainly is interesting to speculate on the future of the world. But International Man has always been a bit speculative and extreme in his thoughts. Now i need my morning coffee…what a read so early! Thx USCitizenabroad – like reading a thriller.
I have often considered how England – such a small country geographically – could have become such a world power. I suspect that there were three major reasons that were mot important and a host of minor reasons.
Major reasons which were more vitally important at that time:
1. Geography – It is the center of the world in the sense that every part of the world is accessible in no more than one day.
2. Climate – Neither too hot nor too cold – one could survive and prosper there all year around
3. Surrounded by water – Shipping was the main form of transport
Minor reasons which were more dependent on culture:
4. A general committment (at least for English Homelanders) to freedom and democracy
5. A recognition of the importance of a legal system
Probably less important – but I have often wondered whether there is a relationship between language and empire. Empire requires the ability to export culture. Culture is partly a function of language. Is there anything about the English language that makes it a good platform for exporting culture? America is of course the successor Empire – the main language being English. As a result, English (as also ESL teachers know), is the number one second language in the world) …
An equally interesting question is: What results in the end of Empire?
Scott Morrison’s evangelical-right-wing is about to END cash in AU!!!!
Ran this garbage through, end of a Friday. Reported it in a buried gov’t site as if that constituted fair warning to the public.
Told one party they’d “get back to them” about their concerns, & then waited for them to be out of the room to push it through!!!!!
We were taught at school that Britain became great because of their naval heritage, their navy ruled the waves , traded and colonized. I would say that parliamentary compromise and lack of revolutionary tendencies helped!
‘Is there anything about the English language that makes it a good platform for exporting culture?’
As an ESL/TESOL instructor for over 20 years who has read and studied a great deal on the subject of English as the global ligua franca, I can assure everyone there is nothing special about the English language that makes it better for exporting culture. The ubiquity of English internationally is a remnant of the once globally omnipotent British Empire, which forced horrific policies on colonial populations in order to ‘westernize’ them – policies that successor nations like the US and Australia continued. These policies include such atrocities as stealing native American and Aboriginal children from their families so that they ‘forgot’ their unique heritages and cultures and were basically compelled to accept Western culture, values, religion and the English language.
Later, after WWII, the foothold of English usage around the world was augmented by the tourism boom, where wealthy and middle class, mostly English-speaking Westerners travelled the globe with the obnoxious expectation that if a place wanted their business, then they darn well better speak English (and serve an English or American breakfast).
English as the global lingua franca is on the decline, however. Spanish and Mandarin are catching up and are only a few short years away from overtaking English on the internet, for instance. Culturally, a lot of former colonies are recuperating from their westernization and have successfully managed to revive their heritage or form new hybrids that merge the two – an example of this would be the Bollywood phenomena where Indian culture meets American filmmaking and musicals.
@USCitizenAbroad Don’t forget the joint stock company and economic liberalism.
The US dollar continues to be used in something like 90 % of international transactions. After all, what are the alternatives? The euro? To the extent that it is declining, it is often because of state-to-state deals like those between China and Russia. We will be living in a very different world if this changes (and FATCA will be the least of our problems).
Yes, if population trends continue, then sub-Saharan Africa will experience rapid population growth. I suspect that economic and ecological change will limit this expansion. And while the Chinese role in Africa has been expanding lately, a lot can go wrong, and the more natural outcome would be for them to play a mercantile role similar to that of the Indians in Africa. A more colonial presence smacks of “imperial overstretch” on China’s part, but who knows.
US uses US$ like a weapon against countries like Iran, and against its own citizens abroad
the ultra-powerful international banking cartel, including players like the Rothchilds and the Federal Reserve, which is a private bank are ll very comfortable with US$ as the international currency.
Speaking about english and the US $$$ ,lets not forget, Microsoft, Google,etc, they really leave an inprint of english language and US $ influence.
As on 9 August,
” Even though there’s a ceasefire between United States and Chinese telecom giant Huawei, the company is determined to seek alternatives to Google-controlled Android. Today, those plans came to life today as Huawei released its own operating system, called Harmony Announcement was made during Huawei’s own annual developer conference in China. According to Huawei, the new operating system is suitable for all kinds of devices, ranging from small IoT devices to full-blown ”
Even though the people in Canada and the US may dislike the Chinese, at least they are giving the US a run for their money..At the very least that offers alternatives and a less US-centric world.
If China ,with its population and economic potential , had the ego of the US, we would have been toast a long time ago.
I think before english. french was the universally used language. I seem to remember that from some very distant classroom. I think I also read somewhere about the british financial system playing a role? Surely it was more stable and trustworthy. Speaking of trustworthy – didn`t the british invent “trusts”? If so then they were elementary in developing a pathway to tax evasion. Ah! All these clever clever rotten minds.
But I agree with Zia`od: “We will be living in a very different world if this changes (and FATCA will be the least of our problems)”
But they say the American empire is on the decline, what with all the debt to prove it. We cannot but wonder how that will play out.
So let’s keep things the same..At least we know what have we have At least we know the nature of the current beast . The other beasts may be far worse. If that is one’s outlook, one deserves what one gets..
No- lets fight the beast when we have figured out a way that works and is productive and good for us all.
Out of the frying pan, into the fire.
Agree fully .. When such injustice is being done,you need to continue to fight either with lawsuit or another way.especially considering that MacIntosh has opened the door even wider for US intrusion..
@ Japan T
Fried or burnt. What’s the difference. You’re cooked in the end anyway.
I’ d rather have three or more monsters fighting over each other than one monster running the roost..
“Fried or burnt. What’s the difference. You’re cooked in the end anyway.”
Exactly. So why hope for the one over the other.
I for one am nit quite ready to accept the those are the only two options. Though I currently see no others.
More good cheer from the IRS: