UPDATE: If you just can’t stomach Trump or Clinton, here’s a list of write-in candidates
Some notables (can you believe these?)
VADER, DARTH SPOKANE,WA 10/27/2015 Write-In
MOUSE, MICKEY ANAHEIM,CA 08/30/2015 Write-In
THE ELF, BUDDY NORTH POLE,AK 08/10/2015 Write-In
RAFF, RIFF NOTRE DAME,IN 02/04/2016 Write-In
ALSO: 19,252 emails and 8,034 attachments released by Wikileaks leads to resignation of Wasserman-Schultz; shut-down of Bernie confirmed
I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but as things stand today, I think Trump will win. Here's my 5 reasons why: https://t.co/jotMPWmt96
— Michael Moore (@MMFlint) July 23, 2016
Michael Moore wrote a compelling post on why Trump is going to win. It is difficult to imagine he is wrong………
Some excerpts:
Friends:
I am sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but I gave it to you straight last summer when I told you that Donald Trump would be the Republican nominee for president. And now I have even more awful, depressing news for you: Donald J. Trump is going to win in November. This wretched, ignorant, dangerous part-time clown and full time sociopath is going to be our next president. President Trump. Go ahead and say the words, ‘cause you’ll be saying them for the next four years: “PRESIDENT TRUMP.”
Never in my life have I wanted to be proven wrong more than I do right now.
I assumed during the primaries that certainly the American people would come to their senses and that someone who wasn’t in the main spotlight would emerge toward the end. That someone seemed to be Kaisch…but it wasn’t to be. Now, I suppose many are assuming the same sort of thing regarding Hillary. Even if you don’t like her, she is the more reasonable choice. America has changed and I am sure those of us who have been gone for decades no longer have a real “feel” for what is going on down south.
1) Midwest Math, or Welcome to Our Rust Belt Brexit.
I believe Trump is going to focus much of his attention on the four blue states in the rustbelt of the upper Great Lakes – Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Four traditionally Democratic states – but each of them have elected a Republican governor since 2010 ………
Trump is ahead of Hillary in the latest polls in Pennsylvania and tied with her in Ohio. Tied? How can the race be this close after everything Trump has said and done? Well maybe it’s because he’s said (correctly) that the Clintons’ support of NAFTA helped to destroy the industrial states of the Upper Midwest. Trump is going to hammer Clinton on this and her support of TPP and other trade policies that have royally screwed the people of these four states. When Trump stood in the shadow of a Ford Motor factory during the Michigan primary, he threatened the corporation that if they did indeed go ahead with their planned closure of that factory and move it to Mexico, he would slap a 35% tariff on any Mexican-built cars shipped back to the United States. It was sweet, sweet music to the ears of the working class of Michigan, and when he tossed in his threat to Apple that he would force them to stop making their iPhones in China and build them here in America, well, hearts swooned and Trump walked away with a big victory that should have gone to the governor next-door, John Kasich.
From Green Bay to Pittsburgh, this, my friends, is the middle of England – broken, depressed, struggling, the smokestacks strewn across the countryside with the carcass of what we use to call the Middle Class. Angry, embittered working (and nonworking) people who were lied to by the trickle-down of Reagan and abandoned by Democrats who still try to talk a good line but are really just looking forward to rub one out with a lobbyist from Goldman Sachs who’ll write them nice big check before leaving the room. What happened in the UK with Brexit is going to happen here….
And this is where the math comes in. In 2012, Mitt Romney lost by 64 electoral votes. Add up the electoral votes cast by Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. It’s 64. All Trump needs to do to win is to carry, as he’s expected to do, the swath of traditional red states from Idaho to Georgia (states that’ll never vote for Hillary Clinton), and then he just needs these four rust belt states. He doesn’t need Florida. He doesn’t need Colorado or Virginia. Just Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And that will put him over the top. This is how it will happen in November.
Being from Ohio, and seeing Michigan towns when driving back to see family, it is not at all hard to imagine this. Lots and lots of factory workers here and unhappy ones at that.
2) The Last Stand of the Angry White Man.Our male-dominated, 240-year run of the USA is coming to an end. A woman is about to take over! How did this happen?! On our watch! There were warning signs, but we ignored them.
Nixon, the gender traitor, imposing Title IX on us, the rule that said girls in school should get an equal chance at playing sports. Then they let them fly commercial jets. Before we knew it, Beyoncé stormed on the field at this year’s Super Bowl (our game!) with an army of Black Women, fists raised, declaring that our domination was hereby terminated! Oh, the humanity!This monster, the “Feminazi,”the thing that as Trump says, “bleeds through her eyes or wherever she bleeds,” has conquered us — and now, after having had to endure eight years of a black man telling us what to do, we’re supposed to just sit back and take eight years of a woman bossing us around? After that it’ll be eight years of the gays in the White House! Then the transgenders! You can see where this is going. By then animals will have been granted human rights and a fuckin’ hamster is going to be running the country. This has to stop!
Can’t relate to that at all so will say nothing…….
3) The Hillary Problem
But her vote for the Iraq War made me promise her that I would never vote for her again. To date, I haven’t broken that promise. For the sake of preventing a proto-fascist from becoming our commander-in-chief, I’m breaking that promise. I sadly believe Clinton will find a way to get us in some kind of military action. She’s a hawk, to the right of Obama.
Let’s face it: Our biggest problem here isn’t Trump – it’s Hillary. She is hugely unpopular — nearly 70% of all voters think she is untrustworthy and dishonest. She represents the old way of politics, not really believing in anything other than what can get you elected.
Young women are among her biggest detractors, which has to hurt considering it’s the sacrifices and the battles that Hillary and other women of her generation endured so that this younger generation would never have to be told by the Barbara Bushes of the world that they should just shut up and go bake some cookies. But the kids don’t like her, and not a day goes by that a millennial doesn’t tell me they aren’t voting for her.
The enthusiasm just isn’t there. And because this election is going to come down to just one thing — who drags the most people out of the house and gets them to the polls — Trump right now is in the catbird seat.
I don’t like Trump. But after watching a lot of the Republican convention and then seeing Hillary speak in a commercial, it is hard to come away thinking that there’s any excitement or passion to be had by supporting her. She is boring……..and that war thing…….
4) The Depressed Sanders Vote
Stop fretting about Bernie’s supporters not voting for Clinton – we’re voting for Clinton! The polls already show that more Sanders voters will vote for Hillary this year than the number of Hillary primary voters in ’08 who then voted for Obama. This is not the problem. The fire alarm that should be going off is that while the average Bernie backer will drag him/herself to the polls that day to somewhat reluctantly vote for Hillary, it will be what’s called a “depressed vote” – meaning the voter doesn’t bring five people to vote with her. He doesn’t volunteer 10 hours in the month leading up to the election. She never talks in an excited voice when asked why she’s voting for Hillary. …….
They’re not going to vote for Trump; some will vote third party, but many will just stay home. Hillary Clinton is going to have to do something to give them a reason to support her — and picking a moderate, bland-o, middle of the road old white guy as her running mate is not the kind of edgy move that tells millenials that their vote is important to Hillary. Having two women on the ticket – that was an exciting idea. But then Hillary got scared and has decided to play it safe. This is just one example of how she is killing the youth vote.
Definitely not hard to picture……..so depressed maybe, that lots stay home.
5) The Jesse Ventura Effect
Finally, do not discount the electorate’s ability to be mischievous or underestimate how any millions fancy themselves as closet anarchists once they draw the curtain and are all alone in the voting booth. It’s one of the few places left in society where there are no security cameras, no listening devices, no spouses, no kids, no boss, no cops, there’s not even a friggin’ time limit. You can take as long as you need in there and no one can make you do anything.
There are no rules. And because of that, and the anger that so many have toward a broken political system, millions are going to vote for Trump not because they agree with him, not because they like his bigotry or ego, but just because they can. Just because it will upset the apple cart and make mommy and daddy mad. And in the same way like when you’re standing on the edge of Niagara Falls and your mind wonders for a moment what would that feel like to go over that thing,……..
I have a feeling the American people are so sick and tired of the same-old same-old, this is a very distinct possiblity (and opportunity).
Coming back to the hotel after appearing on Bill Maher’s Republican Convention special this week on HBO, a man stopped me. “Mike,” he said, “we have to vote for Trump. We HAVE to shake things up.” That was it. That was enough for him. To “shake things up.” President Trump would indeed do just that, and a good chunk of the electorate would like to sit in the bleachers and watch that reality show.
If Hillary and the Dems can’t pay attention to Nonresident Americans re: taxation, yet the Republican Platform calls for FATCA repeal and an end to CBT, should we really support her? It’s a real question that I’m grappling with. I wrote to Hillary, Obama, my Congressman and Senators today, and will await their reply before I decide how to vote.
Unfortunately for the USA, I believe Michael Moore is right about Trump likely being the next president. That’s been my gut feeling all along. Only Michael Moore could put this so well. All of us who have renounced/relinquished are fortunate to not have the option of voting in such an atrocity. Hilary Clinton isn’t much of a choice either, but probably less dangerous than Donald. We’ll see what happens when the S_ _ _ hits the fan in November.
Donald Trump will have other priorities if he is elected. I think he’ll build that wall long before he considers repealing FATCA. And he changes his mind a lot.
Perhaps he’ll have other priorities. But his party addresses the issue. If the Dems ignore it, I can’t vote for them. There are plenty of solutions, and I’m waiting for them to actually make clear that they understand the problem. They have 3 months to say something, will they?
FWIW, Five Thirty-Eight sees it differently:
Clinton 57.7%
Trump 42.3%
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
I know Five Thirty-Eight is supposed to be super reliable, but I think Moore has his finger on the mood of Americans.
While I’m not a fan of Trump, the Republican party is the only one of the two with FATCA repeal as part of the platform.
@Bill Thompson
Trump has addressed the issues of FATCA and CBT but I wouldn’t vote for another “Hitler” type as he’s been called by Mexicans. Your choice of course. And it isn’t much of a choice. If I was still a “US Person”, I would stay home or write in someone else.
The idea that folk would vote for a Republican ticket headed by Trump based solely on the party’s possible reconsideration of FATCA is truly frightening. Yikes!
Very true as DMichael says:
“The idea that folk would vote for a Republican ticket headed by Trump based solely on the party’s possible reconsideration of FATCA is truly frightening. Yikes! ”
Better to look at the whole picture of what a Trump presidency would mean for USA and the rest of the world.
I see a lot of popcorn in my future…
Some perspective:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_BJ-zP0ljAc
And this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OCabT_O0YSM
Perhaps it might give some depth as to why the Republicans chose him as their nominee.
Also important to know that Mr. Trump won 1725 delegates based on his primary wins throughout the process in 38 states ( out of 2400 plus delegates) and brought in over 14 million voters ( more than ever before) Republicans are over 60% up in voters and the Democrats are 20% down.
As for Hillary being a viable candidate, with or without Tim Kaine ( a TPP proponent as well as strong connections to Islamists and Muslim Brotherhood) she is a corrupt criminal. Of that there is no doubt. The head of the FBI told the world she is a criminal but refused to refer for an indictment.
Hillary, Comey and Lynch are all connected through a law firm that now handles all of Clinton taxes as well as connections to The Clinton Foundation.
As far as Moore’s assessment that Mr. Trump will take the ‘Rust Belt’ , I tend to agree with that.
We think he will also take Florida and New York ( almost unheard of for a Republican to take NY in a Presidential election) but we think he will do it.
Mr. Trump’s popularity is epic and for good reason.
He is a man of the people. He is one of the middle class , which has been devastated from Obama policies , Bush policies for at least 15 years. He just happens to be rich. And he happens to be rich because he WORKED for it. Something strongly admired by those flocking to his policies and platform. And something neither Obama or Hillary have any knowledge of or experience with.
And then there is foreign policy. We’ll save that for another post.
Robert Spencer:
When I said, “Better to look at the whole picture of what a Trump presidency would mean for USA and the rest of the world.”, I in NO WAY meant that in a positive way. He will bring disaster. Hilary wouldn’t be too much better. However, it’s not my role to get into USA politics. Rather wait and see what happens from north of the border. Bring on the popcorn!
I have no dog in their fight now. The choices are a sociopath or a psychopath. I prefer Trump because ‘might as well burn it all down’. If it does all burn down there will no longer be an IRS, which is not a bad thing >_<
@pukekonz
Well said. That’s the first preference for Trump I’ve heard that makes any sense. Too bad more Americans are not aware of what this choice really may come to.
Why would any overseas voter choose Trump over Clinton based solely on FATCA and RBT? I’ll tell you why. Trump is someone who elicits a strong gut feeling of indefinable (yet prone to hysterical exaggeration) threat to the established order, whereas Clinton poses a very real, visceral, and well-articulated threat to non-resident Americans. I can’t see Trump making things worse for us, but I know Clinton will. And a Republican controlled Congress has a chance of including our issues in the next round of tax reform, which Trump would likely sign, while Clinton would surely veto.
On the controversial issue of the single-issue voter: over and over again we are told how selfish and short-sighted we are to vote solely on fringe expat issues. Yet when Hispanics rail against to Trump’s comments on immigration, is that not a single (valid) issue? But that’s okay, isn’t it? Because Hispanics are an acknowledged minority. When Black Lives Matter shows up at conventions to push their agenda, is that not a single (valid) issue? But that’s okay because they’re an acknowledged minority.
I’m sick and tired of being a minority (overseas Americans) that is either not acknowledged or, worse, maligned by all sides of the spectrum. If I don’t stand up for my rights and vote for my issues, even if it means shoving all other issues aside, then who on God’s green earth ever will?
Screw your arguments that I must dampen my feelings and vote for the common good, if it means voting in the polar opposite direction of my own interests. Absolutely no fecking way will I our any of my family vote for Clinton. We might vote Libertarian…And if “a vote for a third party is actually a vote for Trump”, then all the better to be able to defeat Clinton without sullying my hands with a mark on the ballot for Trump.
Or we might vote Trump. Defeating Clinton and the Democrats is too important for my demographic group–expats–to be left to chance.
I won’t apologize for being focused on a single issue, since that ONE issue has more impact on me personally than anything else in this election. I’m not convinced I can bring myself to vote for Trump. But at present I won’t vote for Hilary either.
I would very much prefer to see the Democrats actually comment on this one issue. Obama did, and promised to improve things. But then he turned around and FATCA’d us. I reached out personally to the candidates, but when I’ve tried this previously I’ve had no response.
@Bill Thomson
Have you seen this from Hillary, for what it’s worth?
http://www.democratsabroad.org/hillary_clinton_happy_4th
I see a key factor in Trump’s success is that there is only a 14% approval rating of Congress and Clinton is viewed as part of the establishment while Trump is not. Plus we just had 8 years of a Democratic Presidency and thus the political pendulum of history tends to swing the other way.
I suggest focus on a view of what the candidates will do for US persons overseas as, we know, we can’t expect Homelanders to prioritise our issues; and if we wish to ignore our issues then definitely they will be ignored in the Homeland.
Republicans have repeal of FATCA and change to residence based taxation in their platform. This is much better than the Democrats who only pledge review for fairness for US persons overseas the application of FATCA and FBAR,
Republicans ahead on this score.
Let’s say even if Trump ignores the platform. Then it will still be Republicans ahead as they have in their DNA lower taxation and regulation which will likely mean lower double taxation and lower double compliance for US persons overseas.
Also the Democrats are comfortable with a ghetto inner city perspective: can’t understand how US persons overseas could afford to move overseas unless they are rich AND tax cheats. The Democrats are the party of vilification of US persons overseas. It has been in their language and they think such language goes well with their base.
Let’s not forget the Republicans Overseas lawsuit against FATCA/FBAR. The Democrats don’t have this. Only recently have the Democrats added FBAR in their language and platform. And where is the DA platform? The draft looked real good addressing many issues, even more than the Republicans. Yet you go to the Democrats Abroad website and you click on Our Party>Our Priorities>Taxation and all that is there is FATCA SCE, as if this is the only issue of importance (misleadingly signalling press etc) and as if this is met then there is a big tick mark for the concerns of Democrats Abroad – all so wrong and simplistic.
Why do Democrats Abroad have very interesting pages on their website such as the draft DA draft platform yet these pages are burred within the website so no one may navigate to them from the home page? IMO, it s a sign that they are not real serious about these internal pages and issues and thus it may be claimed that their organisation are acting as Homeland Democrats Abroad rather than an advocacy group of US persons living overseas.
Let’s say Trump, changes his mind a lot as commented above, and completely disregards the platform about FATCA and CBT. The Republicans still would be ahead. Example, repeal of Obamacare, then that (presumably) means repeal of NIIT Obamacare investment tax (double taxation). Also that means removal of that funny form that need be filed out saying you were resident overseas and should not be penalised for not having Obamacare.
Trump has in writing plans to eliminate inheritance taxes. That is a vexing area of double taxation to be removed.
Yet he seems to have a vindictive side to his policies. I have heard threats against US companies moving factories overseas and how he no longer eats Oreo cookies and has made tariff threats against Ford Motors. I hope such vindictiveness does not translate to vindictiveness against US persons overseas.
I am still waiting and hoping for Clinton to make more effort to grab my vote. I would be happy to Tweet and point out any efforts to do so. Please try and outdo the Republicans! More competition and fighting for the US person overseas vote would be a good thing.
In the meantime, in lawsuit land, what is the plan/goals of citizenhiptaxation.ca ? I am not sure there is a plan. I am not sure there is a marketing plan, promotion plan, fundraising plan – more like “if will build it, they will come.” That would be nice if that were the case, yet so far the results show planing and effort needed. IMO, The plan should be to raise enough money for a legal opinion on a constitutional lawsuit against Citizenship Based Taxation. At minimum such opinion may support those within the US system to make changes. Also such opinion then would heighten credibility of citizenshiptaxation.ca and set the platform for initiating the lawsuit.
@DMichael
“The idea that folk would vote for a Republican ticket headed by Trump based solely on the party’s possible reconsideration of FATCA is truly frightening. Yikes!”
Well, that shows you how deeply people here feel affected by the injustice of US CBT & FATCA.
Personally, if I was a real American living in the US, my protest vote would be for Jill Stein of the US Green Party. I heard her interviewed by Michael Enright (CBC’s Sunday Edition) a while back and she sounded very good.
Might there be a request for Obama Presidential Pardon for accidentals and other USP overseas impacted by unjust CBT?
https://twitter.com/JCDoubleTaxed/status/756990673107062784
The System is Rigged Against the 9 million US Persons Overseas!
https://twitter.com/JCDoubleTaxed/status/757037230321840128
It is hard to be enthusiastic about Trump on the basis of his potential opposition to FATCA. I suspect that fence will keep Mexicans out of the US long before it is ever used to keep FATCA out of Mexico. I would definitely have had more enthusiasm for Rand Paul had he been the nominee–especially if Rand Paul had taken strong ownership of the anti-FATCA US position and not just lent his name to a lawsuit. Congressional Republicans make have opposed FATCA in 2010 but that was over 6 years ago now and Trump–a clear maverick to put it mildly–wasn’t even a member of Congress then (or ever). Hard to feel much enthusiasm for Trump.
As for Hillary, I don’t fully understand the lukewarm attitude towards her. There was much more enthusiasm for Hillary in 2008 and the Iraq war vote–admittedly a problem–was before 2008. It is hard for me to understand how the email scandal has caused such a change in Hillary’s attitudes.
As for FATCA itself, I still think the Arvay-led effort is the last best effort to defeat it. I’m not counting on politicians in either country to do much to defeat it. I think the lawsuit will eventually succeed but there is still a long, long road ahead there as we still aren’t nearly done with even the first level of court here.
The documentary “Clinton Cash” is being offered free online (no sign in required) this weekend, if anyone is interested.
http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/07/22/global-airing-clinton-cash-documentary-breitbart-email-sign/
One of my biggest concerns with Trump is while he is a Republican he represents the same old Midwestern Michigan industro-populist Carl Levinite base. Basically every other Republican candidate(Cruz, Paul, Bush, Rubio) would have been ten times better than Trump. I will also mention that anti FATCA GOP Senator Mike Lee refuses to endorse Trump.
I will also note that many of Trump’s overseas political allies such as Nigel Farage, Marine Le Pen, Geert Wilders and Victor Orban have done absolutely nothing to fight FATCA IGA’s in there own countries. The position of Farage, Le Pen et all on FATCA is basically the exact same as Justin Trudeau. In fact the lack of concern from people like Nigel Farage regarding FATCA is the best sign that Trump will do absolutely nothing on this front.
** Some far right politicians HAVE spoken out against FATCA such as Winston Peters in New Zealand however, Peters has no alliance with Trump.