UPDATE: If you just can’t stomach Trump or Clinton, here’s a list of write-in candidates
Some notables (can you believe these?)
VADER, DARTH SPOKANE,WA 10/27/2015 Write-In
MOUSE, MICKEY ANAHEIM,CA 08/30/2015 Write-In
THE ELF, BUDDY NORTH POLE,AK 08/10/2015 Write-In
RAFF, RIFF NOTRE DAME,IN 02/04/2016 Write-In
ALSO: 19,252 emails and 8,034 attachments released by Wikileaks leads to resignation of Wasserman-Schultz; shut-down of Bernie confirmed
I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but as things stand today, I think Trump will win. Here's my 5 reasons why: https://t.co/jotMPWmt96
— Michael Moore (@MMFlint) July 23, 2016
Michael Moore wrote a compelling post on why Trump is going to win. It is difficult to imagine he is wrong………
I am sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but I gave it to you straight last summer when I told you that Donald Trump would be the Republican nominee for president. And now I have even more awful, depressing news for you: Donald J. Trump is going to win in November. This wretched, ignorant, dangerous part-time clown and full time sociopath is going to be our next president. President Trump. Go ahead and say the words, ‘cause you’ll be saying them for the next four years: “PRESIDENT TRUMP.”
Never in my life have I wanted to be proven wrong more than I do right now.
I assumed during the primaries that certainly the American people would come to their senses and that someone who wasn’t in the main spotlight would emerge toward the end. That someone seemed to be Kaisch…but it wasn’t to be. Now, I suppose many are assuming the same sort of thing regarding Hillary. Even if you don’t like her, she is the more reasonable choice. America has changed and I am sure those of us who have been gone for decades no longer have a real “feel” for what is going on down south.
1) Midwest Math, or Welcome to Our Rust Belt Brexit.
I believe Trump is going to focus much of his attention on the four blue states in the rustbelt of the upper Great Lakes – Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Four traditionally Democratic states – but each of them have elected a Republican governor since 2010 ………
Trump is ahead of Hillary in the latest polls in Pennsylvania and tied with her in Ohio. Tied? How can the race be this close after everything Trump has said and done? Well maybe it’s because he’s said (correctly) that the Clintons’ support of NAFTA helped to destroy the industrial states of the Upper Midwest. Trump is going to hammer Clinton on this and her support of TPP and other trade policies that have royally screwed the people of these four states. When Trump stood in the shadow of a Ford Motor factory during the Michigan primary, he threatened the corporation that if they did indeed go ahead with their planned closure of that factory and move it to Mexico, he would slap a 35% tariff on any Mexican-built cars shipped back to the United States. It was sweet, sweet music to the ears of the working class of Michigan, and when he tossed in his threat to Apple that he would force them to stop making their iPhones in China and build them here in America, well, hearts swooned and Trump walked away with a big victory that should have gone to the governor next-door, John Kasich.
From Green Bay to Pittsburgh, this, my friends, is the middle of England – broken, depressed, struggling, the smokestacks strewn across the countryside with the carcass of what we use to call the Middle Class. Angry, embittered working (and nonworking) people who were lied to by the trickle-down of Reagan and abandoned by Democrats who still try to talk a good line but are really just looking forward to rub one out with a lobbyist from Goldman Sachs who’ll write them nice big check before leaving the room. What happened in the UK with Brexit is going to happen here….
And this is where the math comes in. In 2012, Mitt Romney lost by 64 electoral votes. Add up the electoral votes cast by Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. It’s 64. All Trump needs to do to win is to carry, as he’s expected to do, the swath of traditional red states from Idaho to Georgia (states that’ll never vote for Hillary Clinton), and then he just needs these four rust belt states. He doesn’t need Florida. He doesn’t need Colorado or Virginia. Just Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And that will put him over the top. This is how it will happen in November.
Being from Ohio, and seeing Michigan towns when driving back to see family, it is not at all hard to imagine this. Lots and lots of factory workers here and unhappy ones at that.
2) The Last Stand of the Angry White Man.
Our male-dominated, 240-year run of the USA is coming to an end. A woman is about to take over! How did this happen?! On our watch! There were warning signs, but we ignored them.
Nixon, the gender traitor, imposing Title IX on us, the rule that said girls in school should get an equal chance at playing sports. Then they let them fly commercial jets. Before we knew it, Beyoncé stormed on the field at this year’s Super Bowl (our game!) with an army of Black Women, fists raised, declaring that our domination was hereby terminated! Oh, the humanity!
This monster, the “Feminazi,”the thing that as Trump says, “bleeds through her eyes or wherever she bleeds,” has conquered us — and now, after having had to endure eight years of a black man telling us what to do, we’re supposed to just sit back and take eight years of a woman bossing us around? After that it’ll be eight years of the gays in the White House! Then the transgenders! You can see where this is going. By then animals will have been granted human rights and a fuckin’ hamster is going to be running the country. This has to stop!
Can’t relate to that at all so will say nothing…….
3) The Hillary Problem
But her vote for the Iraq War made me promise her that I would never vote for her again. To date, I haven’t broken that promise. For the sake of preventing a proto-fascist from becoming our commander-in-chief, I’m breaking that promise. I sadly believe Clinton will find a way to get us in some kind of military action. She’s a hawk, to the right of Obama.
Let’s face it: Our biggest problem here isn’t Trump – it’s Hillary. She is hugely unpopular — nearly 70% of all voters think she is untrustworthy and dishonest. She represents the old way of politics, not really believing in anything other than what can get you elected.
Young women are among her biggest detractors, which has to hurt considering it’s the sacrifices and the battles that Hillary and other women of her generation endured so that this younger generation would never have to be told by the Barbara Bushes of the world that they should just shut up and go bake some cookies. But the kids don’t like her, and not a day goes by that a millennial doesn’t tell me they aren’t voting for her.
The enthusiasm just isn’t there. And because this election is going to come down to just one thing — who drags the most people out of the house and gets them to the polls — Trump right now is in the catbird seat.
I don’t like Trump. But after watching a lot of the Republican convention and then seeing Hillary speak in a commercial, it is hard to come away thinking that there’s any excitement or passion to be had by supporting her. She is boring……..and that war thing…….
4) The Depressed Sanders Vote
Stop fretting about Bernie’s supporters not voting for Clinton – we’re voting for Clinton! The polls already show that more Sanders voters will vote for Hillary this year than the number of Hillary primary voters in ’08 who then voted for Obama. This is not the problem. The fire alarm that should be going off is that while the average Bernie backer will drag him/herself to the polls that day to somewhat reluctantly vote for Hillary, it will be what’s called a “depressed vote” – meaning the voter doesn’t bring five people to vote with her. He doesn’t volunteer 10 hours in the month leading up to the election. She never talks in an excited voice when asked why she’s voting for Hillary. …….
They’re not going to vote for Trump; some will vote third party, but many will just stay home. Hillary Clinton is going to have to do something to give them a reason to support her — and picking a moderate, bland-o, middle of the road old white guy as her running mate is not the kind of edgy move that tells millenials that their vote is important to Hillary. Having two women on the ticket – that was an exciting idea. But then Hillary got scared and has decided to play it safe. This is just one example of how she is killing the youth vote.
Definitely not hard to picture……..so depressed maybe, that lots stay home.
5) The Jesse Ventura Effect
Finally, do not discount the electorate’s ability to be mischievous or underestimate how any millions fancy themselves as closet anarchists once they draw the curtain and are all alone in the voting booth. It’s one of the few places left in society where there are no security cameras, no listening devices, no spouses, no kids, no boss, no cops, there’s not even a friggin’ time limit. You can take as long as you need in there and no one can make you do anything.
There are no rules. And because of that, and the anger that so many have toward a broken political system, millions are going to vote for Trump not because they agree with him, not because they like his bigotry or ego, but just because they can. Just because it will upset the apple cart and make mommy and daddy mad. And in the same way like when you’re standing on the edge of Niagara Falls and your mind wonders for a moment what would that feel like to go over that thing,……..
I have a feeling the American people are so sick and tired of the same-old same-old, this is a very distinct possiblity (and opportunity).
Coming back to the hotel after appearing on Bill Maher’s Republican Convention special this week on HBO, a man stopped me. “Mike,” he said, “we have to vote for Trump. We HAVE to shake things up.” That was it. That was enough for him. To “shake things up.” President Trump would indeed do just that, and a good chunk of the electorate would like to sit in the bleachers and watch that reality show.
I agree. SCE will help only a few. And it will allow the politicians in DC to think they have “solved” the problem. The only real solution is RBT. SCE is just a bandaid.
As I’ve said before, JapanT, I sympathize with you. I sympathize with everyone caught up in the FATCA/CBT stupidity, including those who could be helped by SCE.
Not trying to fight with you, just pointing out that it is good for only a very small number of people and not very good even for them.
For example, as far as I know, it does nothing to end double taxation of unearned income. Even with SCE, my children, Japanese nationals, would still have to pay inheritance to two countries when their mother passes away.
@JapanT – the SCE proposal, if adopted, would be a change to FATCA regulations. It wouldn’t affect the statutory tax code or tax treaty provisions in any way whatsoever. It’s not a solution to FATCA/CBT, it’s just a suggestion that might help some overseas USCs obtain banking services.
It may or may not get adopted. Nothing’s likely to happen until after the election, at any rate.
While I once thought that would be better for SCE as a first step rather than nothing, I now feel that if adopted it would become the only response to this problem.
I am now against it as I believe it would be used against against the many it does ittle or nothing for. As others have posted, I think it would end up as “What are you crybabies whining about now? We gave you SCE, for Pete’s sake!” and that would be the end of it.
@Japan T, I agree with you on SCE it will be used to make life hard for us again.
On another note on another thread I posted information that may be of use to you. It appears that in May 2015 a memo came out, that went into a field manual in November 2015 that went on the website in April 2016 that an attitude of “Just File It” is being accepted with “reasonable penalty exposure.” I think the lawsuits have started to make a difference so maybe Bopp has had an impact.
I think the agency has realized that the penalty structure created by Levin and crew is unconstitutional so they are not going to impose it.
It appears that six years of late FBARs would cost worse case $60k tops, most likely nothing but maybe $10k if you had the cash.
Considering what “profssional help” costs, that penalty structure should encourage people to file and say lets pay the agency not the professionals.
I still for the life of me don’t see how SCE would “help” even the small number of people like me, US citizen, compliant, unable to renounce. I know non-compliant US persons near me who would therefore not qualify for SCE. Which means the banks have to divide us into yet more categories. They may not have to report my accounts on their lists for the IRS, but they still have to spend time sorting me out from all the rest. Doesn’t make them welcome me more, and now they have to deal with subcategories of US tainted account holders.
On top of that, there remains the reality on the ground that not just USCs are being FATCA’d. I know at least a dozen people in Hong Kong, none with a drop of US taint, some who’ve never been to the USA, who nevertheless are being told to complete a 4-page W-BEN full of acronyms they don’t understand, or risk their accounts being closed. In other words, to play it safe, the banks are sending FATCA notices to EVERY ONE of their customers. A few exemptions by way of SCE isn’t going to ease their workload by much, if any.
Therefore it still makes sense for banks to refuse all US customers, so that they never have to FATCA anyone, and can deploy those hundreds of minions in the compliance department to doing something useful and profitable for the bank.
I appreciate your level-headedness on this topic, iota. But I don’t see why you place much faith in SCE having any positive effect, even one little (sorry) iota.
However, apart from having no way to come up with either of those amounts, I still have a few years to go until six years of back filing would not include the joint account I shared with my spouse. Not sure we closed it in time to prevent its existance being sent to the IRS though.
Again – SCE is a change to the regulations, not a response by Congress to complaints about FATCA/CBT.
SCE is a measure that would have zero impact on IRS real-data flow, while reducing IRS workload and making Treasury look less unreasonable to compliant expats, the banks, the OECD, and other governments. So maybe it, or something similar, will get adopted, some day.
1. Changing from CBT to RBT would not be done unless Congress wanted to do it for reasons other than the plight of expats with unresolvable CBT situations – namely, the urgent need to yank the US international tax system into the 21st century.
2. Repealing FATCA would be extremely difficult, even supposing Congress wanted to do it, because of all the bilateral IGAs that have been signed.
3. Switching from FATCA to CRS might be more possible, and would no doubt be welcomed by the banks, the OECD, and other governments, but that also would not be easy, because of the states’ rights issues. The IRS favours this option. Whether that makes it more or less likely to materialize seems to depend on the outcome of the election.
If any of those options makes it into a bill and comes before the House or the Senate, it won’t be because of expat complaints, and SCE won’t be a factor in its success or failure. There are weightier issues involved.
Personally I would be glad to see SCE adopted, because it would help some people, which in my book would be a good thing.
@Barbara – as I understand it, SCE would not require the bank to do any sorting. A USC wanting to make the election would contact their bank and give them the form. The bank would flag the account as non-USC and file the form. It actually saves the bank time and trouble, because they don’t have to send out a FATCA letter.
Or, if opening a new account, the election could be done then.
All you said about why and how of FATCA being repealed are probably true, but difficult or not, US law demands it. US law states that all citizens must be treated equally, thus it illegal to require anything from us that they do not require if everyone.
US law requires that all citizens rights to due process be upheld.
I know you know this, just pointing out that if what you say about the chances of FATCA resting solely upon a cost/benefit for the US at the expense of the rule of law, then everything the US does must be looked upon with suspicion as they would then be a lawless State.
Under SCE will FFI’s find it necessary to ask for a 1040 every year? How and where will they store this additional and very sensitive information?
@JapanT – I think it’s always prudent to look at any government’s actions with a certain amount of scepticism, and especially when it’s the US. Legal action against FATCA may yet succeed, and if so, they’ll have to abide by the court’s ruling.
Complaints by non-compliant expats do not have to be heeded and in my opinion won’t be. They won’t switch to RBT, or repeal FATCA, purely in response to expat complaints. That’s my view. I wish I could believe otherwise.
@Bubblebustin – under SCE the bank files a copy of the USC’s election form – not their 1040. The USC attaches another copy of the form to the 1040 when filing. The FFI doesn’t have anything to do with the person’s 1040.
I hear ya. I didn’t think you were advocating the actions you describe, just telling what you thought would/will happen.
Such people and their policies are never the problem. It is our fault for not being able to comply to the uncompliable.