The latest expat honour roll has been placed on public inspection for printing in tomorrow’s Federal Register, under a brand new title with a wider variety of punctuation: “Individuals, Who Have Chosen To Expatriate; Quarterly List”. Though it claims to have been approved for publication nearly three weeks ago ago, on 18 July, it was not actually published as required by 26 USC 6039G(d), nor even placed on public inspection, until a week after the 30 July deadline, making this the eighth quarter in a row in which the list has been late.
Coincidentally, this month’s NICS report from the FBI was also delayed — they tried uploading it yesterday, slightly later than usual, but due to an issue with the Plone content management system they use for their website, all of the PDF files went missing. Fortunately, they had more success when they retried the upload this morning. The report reveals that they’ve now hit exactly 26,000 records in the “Renounced United States citizenship” category, up by 577 since last month and 2,193 since the end of last year.
NICS includes only renunciants, not relinquishers; if the previous ratio of 4 or 5 relinquishers for every six renunciants still holds true, that suggests that roughly 3,500 to 4,000 people have given up U.S citizenship in one way or another this year. In contrast, the Federal Register list — which is supposed to include renunciants, relinquishers, and even some green card holders — has just 576 names, giving us a total of 1,577 “published expatriates” so far this year — with many confirmed cases of missing names.
Meanwhile, 124 Kyrgyzstanis among a diaspora of half a million and 817 Ghanaians among a diaspora of between 1.5 and 3 million renounced their respective citizenships in all of 2013.
Media reports of individual relinquishments
The three public figures who gave up U.S. citizenship in 2013 and were still missing as of last quarter’s list — Cuban intelligence officer René González, Saint Vincent & the Grenadines’ former U.N. Representative Camillo Gonsalves, and Pakistani politician Fauzia Kasuri — remain missing from this quarter’s list as well. These missing names made up a total of about a quarter of the media reports of famous people — mostly politicians, rather than the nearly-mythological “wealthy people fleeing the estate tax” — who gave up U.S. citizenship that year.
I am aware of three more media reports of people giving up U.S. citizenship up to the end of June: Bitcoin investor Roger Ver, reported by Bloomberg News to have gave up U.S. citizenship in late February after buying Saint Kitts & Nevis naturalisation; one woman who naturalised in the Federated States of Micronesia in December, according to the government press release (the FSM does not allow dual citizenship for adults, though it is not clear what standard of proof they require that a naturalised citizen has given up his or her prior citizenship); an NCO in the Taiwanese army briefly interviewed by the Taipei Times, who renounced sometime before January. None of their names appear in this quarter’s list either.
Mona Helen Kabuki Quartey also gave up U.S. citizenship to take up a position as Ghana’s Deputy Finance Minister, but only on 10 July, more than a week after the end of the second quarter. She probably will not appear in the Federal Register before the fourth quarter list, if ever. The relative paucity of people giving media interviews about giving up U.S. citizenship this year suggests that most of the latest batch of newly-minted ex-citizens — both those whose names appeared in the Federal Register and those absent from it — are mostly not public figures, or are trying to avoid drawing attention to themselves.
Comparison with other countries
Meanwhile, 124 people renounced citizenship of Kyrgyzstan in all of 2013. The total number of Kyrgyzstani citizens living abroad was reported to be between half a million and six hundred thousand, or about one-tenth the size of the number of extraterritorial U.S. citizens. This means that, adjusted for diaspora population, there are at least three times as many Americans abroad giving up citizenship as Kyrgyzstanis abroad.
However, due to uncertainty about the size of the Ghanaian diaspora, it is not clear whether the American diaspora renunciation rate has surpassed the Ghanaian diaspora renunciation rate yet. In 2013, 817 Ghanaians gave up their citizenship, almost all to naturalise in countries like Germany which place restrictions on dual citizenship. The International Organisation for Migration, citing third-party studies, estimates that there are between 1.5 million and 3 million Ghanaian citizens living abroad.
@foo:
Yes, the number of FBI NICS renunciations at 3,296 as of 30 November 2014 exceeds the Federal Register IRS number of expatriations for 2013 of 2,999. As we all know, the IRS list is to include US citizenship renunciations and relinquishments (plus green card abandonments by long-term holders, which it does not).
My calculation of total 2014 renunciations and relinquishments is:
Renunciations: 12 x 300 per month = 3,600
Relinquishments: Relinquishments occur at roughly same rate as Renunciations, so, 3,600
Total: 7,200
Some additional calculations using the WSJ quote: “State Department spokesman … added that three-quarters of all renunciations are processed by consular offices in Canada, the U.K. and Switzerland.”
A calculated 5,400 USC expatriations will occur in Canada, UK and Switzerland for 2014 (.75 x 7,200)
Switzerland: 1,000 (2012 ACA figure was 800 and 2013 reported figure on IBS was 900)
UK and Canada: 4,400
Rest of world: 1,800
Total: 7,200
Although I believe that the 1,000 is a reasonable estimate for Switzerland, it is a bit incredible that approx. 6% of those USCs with a second citizenship here would expatriate (1,000 / 17,000) in one year. It shows how successful Kathryn Keneally’s terror campaign (and self-enrichment strategy) has been against USCs residing in Switzerland.
An update of my post above from 12 Oct:
Renunciations per FBI NICS:
2012: 1,752
2013: 3,128
1-9 2014: 2,673
1-11 2014: 3,296
Projected FY 2014: 3,600 (12 x 300)
IRS Expatriation Lists as published in the Federal Register. These quarterly lists should include renunciations and relinquishments (and, in theory, LT greencard abandonments):
2012: 932
2013: 2,999
1-9 2014: 2,353
Projected FY 2014: “whatever the IRS gnomes decide to publish”
Thanks for your prediction based on the figures you’ve gleaned, Innocente.
A name to watch for on the IRS Expatriation lists is Nicole Jaresko, who was naturalized by the Ukrainian parliament yesterday in a special procedure and is nominated to be the next Ukrainian Finance Minister. Reuters wrote: “One of the three is Natalie Jaresko, a U.S. citizen and chief executive of private equity group Horizon Capital. She has worked in Ukraine for more than 20 years after holding various economic positions in the U.S. State Department.”
According to her Wiki page, Ukraine does not allow dual citizenship and so lost her U.S. citizenship when she accepted Ukrainian citizenship. Like other mortals, however, she will need to visit a US embassy or consulate soon to make a formal request for relinquishment of her U.S. citizenship and then wait for a CLN. This, of course, should be able to save her the scalper’s $2,350 renunciation fee since she appears to have relinquished her U.S. citizenship to take Ukrainian:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natalie_Jaresko
The problem is that there is no single dataset that give us a total of all formal expatriations (renunciations and relinquishment) and the two sources that we have (Federal Register and FBI) don’t give us a viable way to merge the data from these two sources.
The FBI report is supposed to include all renouncers, regardless in income, but not supposed to include any relinquishers. The Federal Regiater “Name and Shame” lists are supposed to include those who lost citizenship, regardless of how they lost it, but not supposed to include any expat who is not a covered expatriate. Since we’re talking about the government, both sources probably have a few errors. but there is no reason to believe that those errors represent more than a small percentage of the total dataset. After all, even the government has to keep up a pretense of doing a good job.
The point is that, whether by accident or by intentional government design, there is just no way to consolidate these two datasets into a meaningful report that covers all persons who lose citizenship. In fact, from what I have been able to determine, even the State Department doesn’t total all of the records they have. They just forward the requested data on to the FBI. This is not to say that it’s a fact. But I’ve done a lot of searching and have not been able to find any such report. In that regard, if anyone knows of some report from State that does total their data, please post it here.
My guess is that if the powers that be wanted to know, they would be able to produce a rather complete report within a few weeks. I just think that they don’t want any such report to be available for a FOIA request. That’s just my opinion…
FBI NICS records show 137 renunciations in December 2014 and a running total of 27’240 at 31 December 2014. A total of 3’433 Americans renounced their US citizenship during the full-year 2014, or an average of 286 per month.
As always, please note that the FBI NICS figures do not include relinquishments.
FBI NICS records show 271 renunciations in January 2015 and a running total of 27’511 at 31 January 2015. The January 2015 renunciation rate is similar to the average monthly rate of 286 for full-year 2014.
At this point, there seems to be little evidence that the renunciation fee hike from $450 to $2,350 has reduced the renunciation rate (although perhaps it has prevented it from increasing).
As always, the FBI NICS figures do not include relinquishments.
IRS Federal Register Expatriation list for 4Q 2014 contains 1,102, based on my provisional count. This results in a total of 3,455 for the year 2014. As this list is to contain both renunciations and relinquishments, it is likely understated since the FBI NICS reported 3,433 renunciations for 2014.
The name of the Liberty Reserve bitcoin founder, Arthur Budovsky, appears on the list. He reportedly renounced his U.S. citizenship in 2012.
Thank you Innocente. Compared to 2,999 for 2013. Drastic fee increase has done nothing to stem the flow.
Correction: IRS Federal Register Expatriation list for 4Q 2014 contains 1,062, based on a second count. This results in a total of 3,415 renunciations and relinquishments for the year 2014. This figure is, of course, lower than the FBI NICS reported 3,433 renunciations only for 2014.
Thanks Innocente. Glen Lee Roberts (man in Paraguay who made himself stateless, stopped by here a few times to comment) is also in there. Roger Ver isn’t, though. Nor are any of the other names which I’ve been tracking.
@Innocente
Thanks for the info. I don’t see the document on the federal register, though. Do you have a link?
@notamused: it’s under the “public inspection” section, won’t be printed officially until tomorrow
https://www.federalregister.gov/public-inspection
https://www.federalregister.gov/articles/2015/02/11/2015-02850/quarterly-publication-of-individuals-who-have-chosen-to-expatriate
here’s the advance PDF:
https://s3.amazonaws.com/public-inspection.federalregister.gov/2015-02850.pdf
@Eric
Thanks!
@notamused:
http://ofr.gov/inspection.aspx
@Bubblebustin:
The fee increase doesn’t appear to have had an impact on renunciations.
@Eric:
Thanks for your recent write-ups. You put a lot of effort into these and they’re appreciated.
@Innocente
Thanks again. I’m still not on it (renounced 2012). Who knows if that’s a good or a bad thing…
@Innocente
A consulate’s maximum capacity for handling their renunciation volume may be more of a determining factor than the cost!
I agree with Bubblebustin’s comment on what limits the size of the list. I count as follows the number on the list, noting that page 20 is blank: 25 full pages x 40 per page) + 22 on first page – 2 two-line entries (on pages 18 and 25) = 1020. But the exact count doesn’t really matter because it’s such a faulty list.
My name has still never been on the list (I’m an old-time relinquisher), nor has the name of a relative of mine who renounced a couple of years ago.
I am finally on the list, relinquished 2013 my last name is misspelled.
I am still not on the list.
@ecstaticCanadian, I love it that they misspelled your name. There is a name similar to mine on the list and I’m fairly sure it isn’t mine, but how can I be certain? We must all remember that it is only a list of names and some people have the same name. That fact in itself makes the list rather useless for practical purposes, and as a measure of the actual rate of people giving up citizenship and green cards it is just slightly better than examining the entrails of a sheep.
I also laugh at the fact that the list is published as required by a section in the “Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPPA) of 1996, as amended”, whatever the list might have to do with health insurance.
The fact that this list is still published quarterly and taken seriously by media as an accurate indication of the rate of people giving up U.S. citizenship is an indication of the dysfunction of the U.S. government and its bureaucracies and the superficiality of many news media.
FBI NICS records show 105 renunciations in February 2015 and a running total of 27’616 at 28 February 2015. Averaging the renunciation rate for January (271) and February (105) gives 188 vs. an average monthly rate of 286 for full year 2014.
As always, the FBI NICS figures do not include relinquishments.
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Here’s another run at calculating the number of Americans in Switzerland who have given up their US citizenship since the US government’s ethnic cleansing campaign began:
Expatriations:
2010: 180 (1)
2011: 548 (1)
2012: 800 (2)
2013: 800 (est.)
2014: 800 (est.)
Total: 3’128
Calculated US-dual citizens in Switzerland (not adjusted for expatriations):
2010: no data
2011: 14’902 (3)
2012: 15’270 (3)
2013: 15’487 (3)
2014: 15’487 (est., 2014 not yet available)
US-Dual Citizens adjusted for expatriations:
15’487 – 3’128 = 12’359
Percent of US-Dual Citizens who have expatriated of total remaining US-Dual Citizens:
3’128 / 12’359 = 25.3%
Conclusion: One in five Americans in Switzerland with dual citizenship has expatriated in the past five years. Will plan to update when firm Eurostat data for 2014 becomes available.
Data sources:
(1) – Swissinfo
(2) – RTS Swiss Radio/ ACA
(3) – Eurostat tables: migr_pop3ctb, migr_pop5ctz
Reporting Country: Switzerland:
Country of Birth: US less Citizenship: US for 2011, 2012, 2013
State Department smashes revenue records!
FBI NICS report as of 31 March 2015: 28,646 people in “Renounced U.S. citizenship” category
http://web.archive.org/web/20150407043356/http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/nics/reports/active_records_in_the_nics-index.pdf
Up by 1,030 records since 28 February 2015
http://isaacbrocksociety.ca/2014/08/06/american-diaspora-population-adjusted-citizenship-renunciation-rate-worse-than-kyrgyzstan-but-possibly-not-as-bad-as-ghana-yet/comment-page-3/#comment-5669125
Highest monthly total in quite some time
Running total since January 2015: 1,406
Average monthly rate for 2015: ~469/month (about 1.6x the rate for all of 2014)
Estimated number of relinquishers since January 2015 (based on potentially outdated 4:6 or 4:5 ratio): between 940 and 1,120
State Department fee revenue from renunciants added to NICS last month (assuming State’s taking less than half a year to tell the FBI, i.e. they all renounced after the fee hike): $2,420,500 — more than they collected in all of 2013!
Tentative conclusion: higher fees have increased the renunciation demand; CLNs have an upward-sloping demand curve. Veblen effect (having a CLN increases your status; the more you pay the higher your status) or Giffen effect (tax compliance has become too expensive, so $2,350 for a CLN becomes the cheaper “substitute good” option)?