The FBI has released its latest report on Active Records in the NICS Index as of 30 June 2013. NICS now contains the records of 22,610 renunciants who have been stripped of the right to purchase firearms in the United States. (None of them actually tried buying last month anyway, according to the federal denials report.) This is an increase of 413 since last month, 1,106 during the quarter, and 1,956 so far this year. Based on past trends there should be about four or five relinquishers for every six renunciants, meaning that somewhere around 750 people gave up citizenship last month in one way or another, if the FBI didn’t miss any — hard to verify, since the names on their list are not public.
Various upcoming data releases this month may provide a useful basis for comparison. South Korea’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs should be publishing not just their annual diplomatic whitebook (whose previous iteration revealed that 2,128 South Koreans gave up US passports or green cards in 2011), but also their biennial report on the status of overseas Korean populations. And of course, by the end of the month we are supposed to have the Federal Register quarterly name-and-shame list — though there is a high chance it will not be merely late but also laughably incomplete, just like last year when the FBI recorded 4,650 renunciants alone but the IRS named only 932 renunciants, relinquishers, and long-term-green-card-abandoners combined.
The US fiscal year for immigration (and other) purposes is October 1 to September 30. For example, fiscal year 2005 is from October 1, 2004 to September 30, 2005. I think they wrote “2000-2013 (May)” to specify that fiscal year 2013 has only been compiled until May. It includes 8 months (October to May).
Estimate for 2013: 11,185 ÷ 8 × 12 = 16,778, comparable to previous years.
@Shadow Raider, thanks! I’ve updated my statistics list with it. I’d have preferred for it to be since 1998, but 2000 will do too.
I was astonished at the increase of 800,000 in the DOS estimates of Americans living abroad from their 6.8 million estimate for January 2013 to the 7.6 million estimate for May 2013 (see below for links). In the 4.5 years since Obama took office, the number of Americans living abroad has increased by approx. 521,000 annually. If the 7.6 million Americans abroad represented a US state, it would be the 12th largest behind Virginia. If the calculated increase of 521,000 continues, by next year it will equal Virginia in population. In ten years, assuming the 521,000 annual increase continues, the population of Americans abroad would be around 12.8 million, the current size of Illinois and Pennsylvania, which are 5th and 6th in population.
A brief review of literature on US emigration shows:
1) A US Census study from 1995 calculated that 243,000 Americans emigrated annually (195,000 foreign-born Americans and 48,000 native-born Americans).
http://www.census.gov/population/www/documentation/twps0010/twps0010.html
2) A 2011 study indicates that 1.0 to 1.5% of foreign-born Americans emigrate annually, or 380,000 per year. (This study does not include emigration of native-born Americans).
http://www.hindawi.com/journals/ijpr/2011/546201/
3) A UN study from 2006 indicates that 58,800 Americans emigrate annually to Canada (22,200), France (5,700), Italy (9,500) and UK (21,400). US emigration to other countries was not determined.
http://unstats.un.org/unsd/demographic/meetings/egm/migrationegm06/doc%2019%20ilo.pdf
4) US News reported in 2008 that around 3 million Americans become expats annually, although the article offers little support for this assertion. I presume this figure is gross and is not net of returning Americans.
http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2008/07/28/a-growing-trend-of-leaving-america
Some thoughts:
1) The number of Americans abroad is increasing and the rate of net emigration appears to have increased in recent years.
2) Americans abroad represent about 2.4% of Americans in the US and in ten years might reach around 3.5%, based on current trends.
3) The US political system and structures generally ignore US citizens abroad (except for tax purposes) in spite of the fact that their population size is nearly that of the 11th largest state.
————————————————————————————————————
May 2013: 7’600’000 (DOS/ BCA)
http://travel.state.gov/pdf/ca_fact_sheet.pdf
Jan 2013: 6’800’000 (DOS/ BCA)
(Link to Jan 2013 DOS/ BCA fact sheet is no longer available. Link is now for May 2013.)
2011: 6’320’000 (DOS)
http://aaro.org/about-aaro/6m-americans-abroad
2009: 5’256’600 (DOS)
(see below)
1999: 3’784’693 (DOS/ BCA)
https://www.overseasvotefoundation.org/files/counting%20american%20civilians%20abroad.pdf
(see p. 2 for 2009 and 1999 figures)
For lack of anywhere else to place this news, the Swiss “Bundesamt für Migration” reported today that 396 US citizens received Swiss citizenship in 2012:
http://www.ejpd.admin.ch/content/dam/data/migration/statistik/auslaenderstatistik/einbuergerungen/ts25-einbuergerungen-2012-d.pdf
This is an increase of 113, or 39.9%, from the 2011 figure of 283 naturalizations of US citizens:
http://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/portal/de/index/themen/01/07/blank/key/03.html
Let’s try this post again.
For lack of anywhere else to place this comparison, the Swiss “Bundesamt für Migration” reported today that 396 US citizens received Swiss citizenship in 2012:
http://www.ejpd.admin.ch/content/dam/data/migration/statistik/auslaenderstatistik/einbuergerungen/ts25-einbuergerungen-2012-d.pdf
The annual average is 271 naturalizations of Americans for the period 2000 to 2011. This represents a 46.1% increase over the 271 average and a 39.9% over the 2011 figure of 283 naturalizations.
“Erwerb der Schweizer Bürgrechts nach früherer Staatsangehörigkeit, 1981-2011”
http://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/portal/de/index/themen/01/07/blank/data/04.html
Although one year doesn’t make a trend, my expectation is that there will be greater numbers of US citizens naturalizing in Switzerland than in the past. The expected driver is FATCA and the ongoing difficulties of Americans resident in Switzerland to maintain ordinary banking relationships in Switzerland.