Peter Spiro has talked about the possibility of Secret Americans (put the passport in a drawer and forget about it) on Opinio Juris and one of his latest posts about it is well worth reading.
So how could this phenomenon be measured? What would be the indicators? Passports not renewed? Any ideas, anyone?
Unfortunately, the available statistics are not very good. The Bureau of Consular Affairs publishes four tables of passport application/issuance statistics. At first glance, two look useful for our purposes: “Passport Issuance by State per Fiscal Year (2007 to 2013)”, and “U.S. Passports Issued per Fiscal Year (2013 – 1996)”.
You might think of subtracting the former number from the latter to get the number of passport issuances abroad. That at least gives us a baseline figure: in 2007, State seems to have issued 298,509 U.S. passports abroad. After that, things get more complicated, because in 2008 they introduced “passport cards”. From then on, the overall passport issuance statistics are given both with passport cards included and broken out, but it’s not clear how to interpret the state-level statistics: passports cards included or excluded, or number of applications whether for passports or cards or both?
Whichever interpretation you prefer, it’s hard to make much sense of the numbers. There’s clearly been a decline in passport issuance abroad between 2011 and 2013, but does that still leave us above the 2007 issuance level, or below it? How much of that is normal cyclical fluctuation, and how much of that is due to members of the diaspora deciding that now is a good time to avoid any contact with the increasingly diaspora-hating Homeland government?

