A few years ago, in another context, for another purpose, I did a piece of drudgery with the annual series publication Canadian Citizenship Statistics [0575-8033] 1952-1991. Unfortunately the issuance of that series terminated in 1991 just as an interesting trend seemed to be developing. Here is the overall of the results from that compilation effort. These numbers are for persons who immigrated to Canada and also had United States as “country of former allegiance.”
Some people I’ve met and talked to in the past year are still “US only” and not dual — here’s guessing, on the basis of the data below, that the great majority of US-born having non-Canadian parents are still US only and therefore subject to IRS enforcement within Canada, not least of which is Form 8938 new in 2011. It would be a lot of fun to see these same figures for 1992-2011 and forward.
Year Canadian Citizenship Obtained | and | US Persons Granted Canadian Citizenship
1968 – 1459 1969 – 1462 1970 – 1573 1971 – 1944 1972 – 2458 1973 – 3381 1974 – 4742 1975 – 4454 1976 – 3357 1977 – 2670 1978 – 3672 1979 – 3423 1980 – 3182 1981 – 2813 1982 – 2395 1983 – 1477 1984 – 1526 1985 – 1744 1986 – 1720 1987 – 1486 1988 – 1110 1989 – 1853 1990 – 1691 1991 – 3279
I have a second cousin who lives in the greater GTA. To the best of my knowledge, she has still not applied for CDN citizenship nor has she done anything about the tax returns/FBAR. She had not known about these issues until I wrote her. I am just presuming if she had done these things, I would have heard back from her in the form of requesting help since she is aware that I had started acting on them.
Those numbers are much larger than I would have expected. I get a total of 58,871.
I wonder if the vast majority of those people are, in Schubert’s terms, “relinquishants?” People who think they may have relinquished and have learned/or are about to learn, that their US citizenship has been re-instated. If so, come January, FATCAT will make a hell of a lot more people really mad/terrified.
With the exception of 1991, it is interesting to notice from 1972-1982 (inclusive), all the numbers are above 2000 and then revert back to less than 2000. What was significant enough in 1972 for 514 more to take CDN citizenship? And 923 more the next year (1973), and the highest number, 4742 in 1974 (1361 more than 1973)? I was in high school then and would have been completely unaware of what was happening in Canada at that time.
Do you think some of those people would have been so disgusted with the war, Nixon and Watergate, that they would have decided to stay when they might not have otherwise?
Thanks for posting this -gives way to a lot of thinking.
Another interesting statistic. In the 2006 census, 117,425 Canadian citizens born in theUS d escribed themselves as “Canadian citizen only.” I suspect very few of them have CLNs, that they’ve either just had or are about to have the shock of their lives, and that the US consulates are going to remain very, very, very busy processing CLN applications of well over 100,000 people desperate to get their lives straightened out!
@nobledreamer
There was a five year waiting period for landed immigrants to get Canadian citizenship back then so a lot of draft dodgers who came to Canada in the mid to late sixties were eligible to apply in the early to mid seventies. Since Carter’s pardon didn’t come until 1976 (77?) the best option for staying in Canada was to become a citizen.
@pacifica very interesting
@johnnb thanks, that makes a lot of sense
@pacifica
Not only those but what about the 137, 425 who are not Canadian citizens? They won’t have any protection against FBARs/Tax collection.
I’m a bit confused by some of the statistics. It seems that the oft-quoted figure of 1million in Canada is not accurate. I don’t see any figure like that anywhere. More like 250,000 plus or minus a few thousand.
Since I did this work on the topic back in Feb 2012 — How Many U.S. Citizens Reside in Canada? — I haven’t come across anything else that makes the situation any clearer. Also see How Many Extraterritorial U.S. Citizens? and think about the implications of that figure of 503,585 births registered abroad for 2000-2009.
@usxcanada
Do you have any information on country of origin of immigrants to Canada for those years? Recently I came across a bar chart of immigration to Canada in 10 year intervals beginning in 1971.
I didn’t see actual numbers, but it looked like Americans made up about 15% of immigrants in 1971. The percentage has declined over the years as the numbers from Asia, South Asia and Africa have risen sharply.
I’ll give you some of my own statistics, based on a very small sample of acquaintances:
Percentage of American immigrants to Canada in the 1960’s and 1970’s you later became Canadian citizens-90%.
Percentage that returned to the US- 5%
Percentage that filed any US returns after moving to Canada – 2% (all those filed for the first time recently).
Here’s the bar chart
http://www12.statcan.ca/census-recensement/2006/as-sa/97-557/figures/c2-eng.cfm
@USXcanada
Interesting stuff. I am pretty sure I can explain he spike in 1991. It as in 1990 that the U.S. State Department adopted an administrative presumption that U.S. citizens becoming citizens of another county (for our purposes Canada) did do with a PRESUMED intention of retaining U.S. citizenship.
Remember also that without Canadian citizenship, a permanent resident of Canada can lost their status if they leave Canada. Therefore, I expect that a large number of people who became Canadian citizens in the early 90s did so because they wanted to guarantee their right to return to Canada if they Canada. Nobody, could imagined the problems of U.S. citizenship down the road.
@All
I don’t see problems for very many people in January 2013. Those with long term bank accounts should have no problem. At most, the problems will be moving financial accounts around. I would advise people who have existing accounts to NOT move or close any accounts.
The U.S. cannot retroactively restore citizenship. It is an OPTION for people, that’s all. If you don’t think you are a U.S. citizen, stick to your guns.
But, what we are sure to see is an avalanche of:
1. U.S. citizens who are Canadian renouncing;
2. U.S. citizens in Canada becoming Canadian.
@ Noble Dreamer, Along with dual citizens and people who consider themselves “Canadian citizen only,” another group to add to the approx 250,000 would be “US-citizens-only.”
There is a figure 462,700 American citizens registered with US consulates in Canada at http://www.overseasdigest.com/amcit_nu2.htm which says that the data is from the Bureau of Consular Affairs, 1999. (I tried briefly some time ago to track down more recent info, but got sidetracked — now my curiosity is piqued again, though)
I’d guess that most, or certainly a large number, of these would be “US-only citizens,” that a dual citizen inCanada would be less likely to register with a US consulate.
I see the 1 million figure a lot, and while I find it plausible, I would like to know where it comes from/how it’s been arrived at, as all I’ve been able to do so far is patch together data from different sources at different times.
When I first heard about this, and that there were potentially a million of us, I went looking for stats both at Stats Canada and in the US. I just couldn’t make sense of what I was finding as I found differing figures, so gave it up. I hope someone more savvy than I has more luck. At the time I wanted to be able to quote statistics in my letters to my govt, but then decided it was better to go with the ‘estimated’ that was a much higher figure, and I suspected, based only upon my subjective experience, more accurate.
Here it is… 643835
*Immigrants to Canada from last permanent residence, USA
Does not include those born to these people…
This is from Statistics Canada Data Base CANSIM
CANSIM TABLE 510006 1,2
Try the OLAP View of this table! Immigrants to Canada, by country of last permanent residence, quarterly (Persons)Definitions, data sources and methods (IMDB):
3601 – Estimates of Total Population, Canada, Provinces and Territories
Related subject(s) for this table:
Population estimates and projections; Immigrants and non-permanent residents
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1. V35 (Begin date: Mar-1955, End date: Mar-2012, Data: 229)
Canada; United States
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Statistics Canada CANSIM using CHASS.
COL0 Date (YYYY-MM-DD)
COL1 v35 Canada; United States
COL0 COL1
1955-03 2062
1955-06 2572
1955-09 3268
1955-12 2493
1956-03 1915
1956-06 2265
1956-09 2679
1956-12 2918
1957-03 2071
1957-06 2461
1957-09 3557
1957-12 2919
1958-03 2186
1958-06 2514
1958-09 3343
1958-12 2803
1959-03 2098
1959-06 2826
1959-09 3660
1959-12 2754
1960-03 2118
1960-06 2506
1960-09 3876
1960-12 2747
1961-03 2023
1961-06 2661
1961-09 4104
1961-12 2728
1962-03 2003
1962-06 2630
1962-09 4189
1962-12 2821
1963-03 1942
1963-06 2423
1963-09 4361
1963-12 3010
1964-03 2129
1964-06 2752
1964-09 4565
1964-12 3119
1965-03 2415
1965-06 3214
1965-09 5898
1965-12 3616
1966-03 3022
1966-06 3896
1966-09 6717
1966-12 3879
1967-03 2850
1967-06 3869
1967-09 8257
1967-12 4062
1968-03 2670
1968-06 4150
1968-09 7103
1968-12 6499
1969-03 3921
1969-06 4674
1969-09 6871
1969-12 7319
1970-03 4523
1970-06 5218
1970-09 7389
1970-12 7294
1971-03 5108
1971-06 5206
1971-09 6956
1971-12 7096
1972-03 5364
1972-06 5209
1972-09 6378
1972-12 5667
1973-03 4091
1973-06 4542
1973-09 6965
1973-12 9644
1974-03 6178
1974-06 7611
1974-09 7877
1974-12 4875
1975-03 3835
1975-06 5339
1975-09 7051
1975-12 3930
1976-03 3149
1976-06 6072
1976-09 5092
1976-12 3071
1977-03 2800
1977-06 3750
1977-09 4196
1977-12 2172
1978-03 2196
1978-06 2737
1978-09 2796
1978-12 2220
1979-03 2186
1979-06 2067
1979-09 2891
1979-12 2804
1980-03 1910
1980-06 2512
1980-09 3153
1980-12 2378
1981-03 2321
1981-06 2632
1981-09 2824
1981-12 2796
1982-03 2246
1982-06 2540
1982-09 2256
1982-12 2333
1983-03 1977
1983-06 1863
1983-09 1902
1983-12 1657
1984-03 1385
1984-06 2153
1984-09 2012
1984-12 1399
1985-03 1369
1985-06 1808
1985-09 1830
1985-12 1665
1986-03 1425
1986-06 2082
1986-09 1810
1986-12 1966
1987-03 2004
1987-06 2235
1987-09 2242
1987-12 1482
1988-03 1290
1988-06 1400
1988-09 1964
1988-12 1867
1989-03 1803
1989-06 1909
1989-09 1636
1989-12 1565
1990-03 1248
1990-06 1748
1990-09 1622
1990-12 1529
1991-03 1445
1991-06 1369
1991-09 1218
1991-12 2632
1992-03 1816
1992-06 1752
1992-09 1915
1992-12 2113
1993-03 2142
1993-06 2222
1993-09 2100
1993-12 1576
1994-03 1521
1994-06 1533
1994-09 1704
1994-12 1490
1995-03 1333
1995-06 1341
1995-09 1147
1995-12 1352
1996-03 1426
1996-06 1553
1996-09 1481
1996-12 1386
1997-03 1297
1997-06 1303
1997-09 1407
1997-12 1029
1998-03 1030
1998-06 1257
1998-09 1211
1998-12 1302
1999-03 1219
1999-06 1368
1999-09 1472
1999-12 1488
2000-03 1245
2000-06 1556
2000-09 1535
2000-12 1497
2001-03 1471
2001-06 1533
2001-09 1553
2001-12 1352
2002-03 1589
2002-06 1542
2002-09 962
2002-12 1201
2003-03 1363
2003-06 1398
2003-09 1478
2003-12 1774
2004-03 1832
2004-06 2071
2004-09 1867
2004-12 1737
2005-03 2233
2005-06 2553
2005-09 2514
2005-12 1963
2006-03 2119
2006-06 2632
2006-09 2789
2006-12 3403
2007-03 2104
2007-06 2488
2007-09 2997
2007-12 2864
2008-03 2773
2008-06 3319
2008-09 2888
2008-12 2250
2009-03 2064
2009-06 2690
2009-09 2494
2009-12 2496
2010-03 2324
2010-06 2520
2010-09 2202
2010-12 2217
2011-03 1818
2011-06 2592
2011-09 2290
2011-12 2362
2012-03 2105
643835
*This would include those passing through the USA, not necessarily born there but probably would be considered “US Persons” in any event.
Here it is… 643835
*Immigrants to Canada from last permanent residence, USA
I MEANT Does not include those born to these people AFTER THEY ARRIVE IN CANADA.…
Not included in any statistics are those who are in Canada illegally.
With reference to Joe Smith’s numbers:
Some of those in the early years may no longer be alive, and some other US-origin immigrants may have moved back to the US (I have a cousin and his wife who did that), but taking at face value a total of roughly 600,000 immigrants, and assuming rather arbitrarily that maybe 300,000 had kids in Canada who under US law might still be considered US citizens, and assuming roughly 1.7 kids per couple (and ignoring that some of those 300,000 might have been married to each other), one might estimate another 500,000 Canadians born in Canada who had US parents, which easily puts us over the 1 million mark. So the 1-million figure quoted elsewhere makes some sense.
Following up on John’s point about the time lag to get USC, the “peak” of US immigrants to Canada was in the final quarter of 1973 (nearly 10,000 people) when Vietnam war was still going on fast and furious — those people likely couldn’t have become Canadians until near the end of 1979 at the earliest, which suggests a potential corresponding peak of relinquishments dating from around 1980, well before the US Supreme Court changes to presumption of intention to relinquish (1985 or 1986 I think). Not all these immigrants would have been Vietnam-War motivated, but those who were had prima facie grounds for intent to relinquish on becoming Canadians, and counting backwards that’s a very large number. If we take 1966-mid 1975 immigrations as potentially Vietnam-war-motivated, that’s around 257,000 or so. If even only half of those were war-motivated and resolutely did not exercise US citizenship, that’s well over 125,000 people who’d qualify for relinquishment if they subsequently became Canadian citizens. Quite a workload for one senior officer in State Department to have to deal with … not to mention the IRS if they were stupid enough to try to claim tax returns from people who’d had no US financial contacts at all for more than 30 years. On behalf of my wife and other relinquishants in the queue, I hope they don’t all file for relinquishment CLNs at once, but part of me really hopes they do … what a nice message in an election year if that estimate were roughly correct and it got into the US media … Should also keep the consulates hopping.
Schubert1975 –
Re: The “peak” of US immigrants to Canada was in the final quarter of 1973 (nearly 10,000 people) when Vietnam War was still going on fast and furious.
Trying to do history from personal memory tends not to be a good move. Consider these four events: (1) 1972 Dec 29 — Last induction of Vietnam War (2) 1973 Jan 23 — Nixon announces agreement for “peace with honor” (3) 1973 Mar 29 — Last 2500 combat soldiers leave South Vietnam (4) 1973 July 1 — Last draft induction
Your assumption of peak immigration is likewise flawed. What you are seeing is the aftermath cleanup that followed on Canada’s one-time 1967-1972 experiment with at-the-border immigration. On 6 Nov 1972 a desperate door slammed shut on that experiment [Order in Council PC 1972-2502] in the context of a federal election. Detail is hard to come by, but in 1972-1973 Canada eventually “regularized” the status of about 80,000 persons through several special programs. It seems likely that about one-quarter of this lump could represent US military deserters, a group that Canada never “welcomed.” Today’s hazy recollections and misbegotten mythologies have little foundation in historical reality.
Joe Smith –
Thanks for sending me off to CANSIM. I’ve put that data (annualized) alongside the data for Canadian citizenship, with a five-year offset, and calculated a rate of take-up that mostly ranges ±5% around a figure of 15%. There’s also another CANSIM historical table with ten-year totals for 1871-1971. Further musings on the topic, plus that additional and/or reconfigured data, is now up over at USxCanada InfoShop:
http://usxcanada.wordpress.com/perspectives/#howmanycitizens
*This is very interesting data. US combat deaths in Vietnam actually peaked in 1968 (along with draft inductions), but of course there was no way of knowing that at the time. It seems the fear only really started to dissipate after the fall of Saigon, not the US withdrawal.
Also, more recently, we have a genuine spike (nearly doubling over a three-year period) starting around the invasion of Iraq.
*People born in the United States who emigrated to Canada and took Canadian citizenship before 1986, knowing that it was America’s consular position at that time that swearing allegiance to a foreign country was an effective renunciation of their American citizenship are no longer American citizens, as long as they have done nothing since that time to indicate that they considered themselves one, such as residing there, working there, voting in US elections, using a US passport or other official ID, requesting US Consular service etc. I knew exactly what America’s consular position was when I became a Canadian in 1975. I have not been an American citizen since.